Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2025 is projected to rise sharply, with estimates ranging between 6.5% and 7%. This marks a significant jump from 3.0% in August 2025 and 6.93% in September 2024, making it the highest year-on-year (YoY) inflation in 11 months and the steepest month-on-month (MoM) increase in 26 months, according to Topline Securities.
The spike is largely driven by food inflation, which has surged due to the impact of ongoing floods that disrupted supply chains. The food segment is expected to record an 8.75% MoM increase, the highest ever. Major contributors include sharp price hikes in tomatoes (+122%), wheat (+49%), flour (+39%), and onions (+35%). Prices of potatoes, rice, chicken, eggs, and sugar also rose, though at a slower pace.
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Meanwhile, housing, water, electricity, and gas are set to decline slightly by 0.24% MoM, mainly due to a 2.19% reduction in electricity tariffs. However, this relief is partly offset by a 2.75% rise in Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) costs.
In the transport sector, inflation eased by 1.25% as motor fuel prices fell by 2.7%. Petrol prices stayed stable, while high-speed diesel (HSD) dropped by 5.3%.
Analysts warn that inflation for September 2025 could reach between 6.5% and 7%, with real interest rates surging to 400–450 basis points, far above Pakistan’s typical rate of 200–300 basis points. Key risks remain global commodity price fluctuations, which could further influence inflation trends in the coming months.
