Pakistan Lowers FY 2024-25 Growth Outlook to 2.68% Amid Mixed Sectoral Performance
Pakistan’s economy is projected to grow by 2.68% in the fiscal year 2024-25, a downward revision from the earlier estimate of 3.6%, according to provisional data approved by the National Accounts Committee (NAC) during its 113th meeting at the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) in Islamabad.
The NAC also finalized quarterly GDP figures for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of FY 2024-25, along with revised annual growth data for prior years. In Q3, the economy posted 2.40% growth, primarily driven by a 3.99% expansion in services, while agriculture grew modestly at 1.18% and the industrial sector shrank by 1.14%. The revised GDP growth for Q1 and Q2 now stands at 1.37% and 1.53%, respectively, reflecting sectoral improvements, especially in crops and services, though industrial activity remained weak. The electricity, gas, and water supply segment posted declines of –2.30% and –3.40% in Q1 and Q2, respectively.
Q3: Agriculture Falls, Services Lead
In Q3, important crops declined sharply by 11.14%, though gains in other crops like onions (11%) and mangoes (26%) lifted overall performance. Livestock grew by 4.42%, forestry by 4.25%, and fishing by 0.50%. The industrial sector continued to struggle with significant contractions in mining and quarrying (-3.96%), utilities (-7.72%), and construction (-9.12%). In contrast, the services sector saw strong growth led by information and communication (18.44%), public administration (13.73%), and finance and insurance (10.65%).
READ MORE:
NTISB Issues Cybersecurity Alert Over Malicious Apps on Google Play Store
Annual GDP Revisions and Sectoral Highlights
The committee finalized GDP growth for FY 2022-23 at –0.21%, while FY 2023-24 was revised to 2.51%. Agriculture in FY 2023-24 surged by 6.40%, industrial output showed minor recovery at –1.37%, and services were adjusted downward to 2.19% due to weaker transport and health sector performance.
For FY 2024-25, agriculture is projected to grow just 0.56%, largely due to a major decline in key crops: wheat (-8.91%), maize (-15.4%), rice (-1.38%), sugarcane (-3.88%), and cotton (-30.7%). However, certain crops performed well including potatoes (11.5%), onions (15.9%), mangoes (26.7%), and sesame (44.7%). Livestock, forestry, and fishing posted modest growth of 4.72%, 3.03%, and 1.42%, respectively.
The industrial sector is forecast to grow by 4.77%, supported mainly by a 28.88% rebound in electricity, gas, and water supply—driven by last year’s low base. Construction improved by 6.61%, although large-scale manufacturing declined by 1.53%. Subsector trends were mixed: automobiles grew by 40%, tobacco by 13.12%, and textiles by 2.15%, while chemicals, metals, and electronics saw double-digit declines.
Services expanded by 2.91%, with positive growth in all subcategories. Information and communication rose 6.48%—boosted by a 24% jump in computer programming and consultancy. Finance and insurance (3.22%), public administration (9.92%), education (4.43%), and healthcare (3.71%) all contributed to the gains. Wholesale and retail trade remained sluggish, increasing just 0.14% due to weak agricultural and industrial output.
Economic Size and Income Growth
The total size of Pakistan’s economy has reached Rs.114.7 trillion (US$ 410.96 billion) in FY 2024-25, up from Rs.105.1 trillion (US$ 371.66 billion) last year. Per capita income rose to Rs. 509,174 or US$ 1,824, though this figure is subject to revision based on updated population data from the 2023 census.
The NAC acknowledged the collaborative efforts of the PBS, Ministry of Planning, Ministry of Finance, and the State Bank of Pakistan in compiling the updated national accounts data.
