Pakistan’s economy posted a GDP growth of 0.92% during the first quarter of fiscal year 2024-25 (1QFY25), according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). This reflects mixed performance across sectors, with agriculture growing by 1.15% and services by 1.43%, while the industrial sector contracted by 1.03%.
Economic Overview
Based on the latest national accounts data for FY2023-24, Pakistan’s economy is valued at Rs. 105.6 trillion (US$ 373.3 billion). Per capita income is Rs. 472,263 (US$ 1,669), though this figure may undergo revisions following updates to population projections from the 2023 Population Census.
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Sectoral Performance
Agriculture
The agriculture sector, which showed improvement in important crops from 17.02% to 17.12%, experienced a slight decline in overall growth, down to 6.18% from 6.36%. This reduction is primarily attributed to a downward revision in forestry, from 3.05% to -0.89%, due to reduced timber production. Crops contracted significantly by 5.93%, with major declines in important crops (-11.19%) such as:
- Cotton: -29.6%
- Maize: -15.6%
- Rice: -1.2%
- Sugarcane: -2.2%
The wheat crop was unaffected during this quarter as it was neither sown nor harvested. However, other crops grew by 2.08%, recovering from a -2.08% decline in Q1 last year, due to reduced input costs like fertilizers and pesticides. Livestock grew by 4.89% (compared to 4.56% last year) due to increased livestock products and decreased costs for inputs like dry fodder. Forestry and fishing industries reported modest growth at 0.78% and 0.82%, respectively.
Industry
The industrial sector’s contraction slowed to 1.03% in Q1 FY2024-25, compared to a 4.43% contraction in the same quarter last year. However, key industries reported the following performance:
- Mining and Quarrying: Contracted by 6.49%, driven by declines in coal (-12.4%), gas (-6.7%), and crude oil (-19.8%).
- Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM): Declined by 0.82%.
- Electricity, Gas, and Water Supply: Grew modestly by 0.58%.
- Construction: Declined sharply by 14.91%, due to a 16.12% reduction in cement production.
Services
The services sector grew by 1.43%, lower than the 2.16% growth in Q1 last year. Key contributors to the sector’s growth included:
- Wholesale and Retail Trade: 0.51%
- Accommodation and Food Services: 4.58%
- Information and Communication: 5.09%
- Real Estate Activities: 4.22%
- Education: 2.03%
- Health and Social Work: 5.60%
- Other Private Services: 3.30%
On the other hand, transportation and storage contracted by 0.07%, while public administration and social security declined by 4.49%.
Revised GDP Estimates
PBS revised Pakistan’s FY24 GDP growth rate downward, from an initial estimate of 2.52% to 2.5%. The updated data highlight a challenging economic landscape, with varied performance across sectors. While agriculture and services showed modest growth, industrial performance remains a critical area requiring attention to drive sustained economic growth.
