While the tensions in the world continue to rise, China, Russia, and the USA are actively seeking hypersonic missile readiness. However, there is no clear winner in the latest arms race.
Russia’s latest weapon in its arsenal, the hypersonic missile ‘Zicron’, was successfully tested by the United States and China on May 29th.
These three countries are in an expensive race to develop lethal strike capabilities that can be used through military technology.
The US has conducted 17 hypersonic missile testing since 2010, with 10 failures. The US claims that it is still at least one year away from having a combat-ready hypersonic weapon.
Both Russia and China claim to have hypersonic weapons operational in their arsenals.
As the conflict in Ukraine and Russia continues, hypersonic weaponry is gaining popularity among major powers. They promise a long-range, rapid-strike capability that can’t be countered by current military defense platforms.
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Russia stated that the ‘Zircon” hypersonic missile will be in service by this year.
Initial tests showed that the Zircon could travel up to 500 km, but the latest tests revealed that it was able to hit a target in White Sea just over 1,000 km away.
Hypersonic missiles can fly five times faster that sound speed.
According to some reports, the Zircon is nearing its end of development and can fly at nine times speed of sound (equivalent to 2.7 to 3.0 km per second).
This is a major concern for the US as it must deal with increasing global competition and gaps in its missile defense capabilities.
Hypersonics pose a threat to valuable targets large and small, so it is important to account for their growing advancements in electronic warfare, stealth technology, and manoeuvring capabilities.
addressed the gap in the US’s military edge back in 2018, when Vice Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff General Paul Selva noted that the US might have “lost [its] technological advantage in hypersonics”, but that they “haven’t lost their hypersonics battle”.
A March 5 report to Congress identified $4.7 Billion for hypersonic research and development. This is an increase of $3.8 Billion in 2022 and $26 billion for 2020.
In recent years, the US has focused on two main types of hypersonic missiles.
The first is hypersonic glide cars, which are launched from rockets, then disengaging from boosters, and then glide at terminal velocity towards the target with anti-radar maneuvers. The second is hypersonic cruise missiles. They are powered by powerful air-breathing engine or scramjets that are activated at high speeds.
The US has embraced hypersonic weapons as an offensive option to attack distant targets that are too difficult or impossible to reach with regular force. Hypersonics won’t replace artillery because of their high cost. They will be relegated to strategic strikes and precision against high-value targets.
The US is no longer the only proponent of hypersonic technology and cannot rely on hypersonic missiles to deterrence.
The world’s proliferation and pursuit of hypersonic tech could lead to them taking on the easy role as nuclear warhead delivery vehicles. This would have serious implications for nuclear nonproliferation.
Strategic stability is a hit
Concerns about the potential for unintended military escalation have been raised by the rapid increase in hypersonic missile technology.
Due to the weapon’s short flight time, it has a significant reduction in response time. It also has the ability to create unpredictable flight paths. Indirectly, the weapon’s shorter flight time and unpredictable trajectory could lead to unwelcome escalation.
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This is because it is difficult to distinguish between a conventional hypersonic missile and one that is nuclear-armed.
Conventional long-range ballistic missiles have a parabolic trajectory, which makes interception easy. It would be much more difficult to intercept a hypersonic missile that has a fluctuating approach vector.
The United Nations Office of Disarmament Affairs conducted a 2019 study on hypersonic weapons and found that states can still perceive a strike as strategic or nuclear in nature. This could lead to a response from the state.
Modern nuclear strategy revolves around the core principle of “Mutually Assured Destruction” (MAD). Nation’s protect their second-strike capabilities to ensure predetermined retaliation, and no clear victor.
This knowledge deters nations from launching their first-strike capability, given the high price that will follow. However, confusions are still common. Since the 1950’s there have been at most 15 nuclear close-calls from various nuclear-capable countries.
Heated Race
The US is still developing its hypersonic program, but it has continued to conduct low-profile tests in order to reduce tensions with Russia.
The US successfully tested a Lockheed Martin Hypersonic Airbreathing Weapon Concept’ (HAWC) just days after Russia’s launch of its hypersonic Kinzhal rocket in March. however, kept the test under wraps for a further two weeks due to ongoing tensions with Ukraine.
This would be the second successful HAWC testing, and the first variant of this type that Lockheed-Martin developed. Raytheon developed the first competitor design and it was tested in September 2021.
The latest HAWC launched from a B52 nuclear-capable bomber, New Mexico. It reached Mach 5.8 and nearly 1.98 kilometres per seconds.
While the US is pushing for development, Russia has used hypersonic weapons several times in Ukraine. This includes the launch of three ‘Kinzhal (Dagger), hypersonic rockets into Odessa Oblast.
The US President Joe Biden praised the use of hypersonic missiles in active military theatres as “almost impossible” and proclaimed it to be “almost impossible.”
Although hypersonic weapons may not change the nature or the outcome of the Ukraine-Russia war, it could still be an effective strategic option.
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China asserts that it has developed artificial intelligence capable of predicting the trajectory of a hypersonic weapon’s trajectory. They also claim to have developed infrared-homing technology, which they claim the US won’t have until 2025.
China’s latest milestones in hypersonic technology include a rocket assisted dual-stage launch to low-earth orbit. This raises fears that it was actually for an orbiting hypersonic weapon. China denies any hypersonic weapon testing.
Although most nuclear powers are interested in hypersonic weapons, there are different strategic reasons for doing so.
China’s alleged homing tech is an example of earlier design thinking that led the to the design and construction of the DF-17 missile (anti-area access denial (A2/AD), weapon specifically designed for the South China Sea.
“Technological advances are occurring at an increased pace,” said Vladimir Putin, Russian President, at the unveiling Russia’s first hypersonic weapon.
He says, “Those who use this new technology will propel themselves forward.” Technological progress will drown those who are not able to do so.
